Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 11.082504 13.645049 16.528089 19.991179 24.016207 28.524742 33.933622
2025-04-20 7.488040 10.756479 14.881190 20.374331 27.394575 35.957652 47.072013
2025-04-27 5.635475 9.153662 14.006437 20.982122 30.518715 42.849685 59.711229
2025-05-04 4.488886 8.114740 13.508679 21.763583 33.670246 49.776302 72.685636
2025-05-11 3.600956 7.199501 12.938596 22.227033 36.263508 55.993432 84.996894
2025-05-18 2.817737 6.236931 12.078091 22.053297 37.800604 60.730035 95.455926
2025-05-25 2.132893 5.254456 10.977797 21.290761 38.280741 63.870478 103.731067
2025-06-01 1.681760 4.587598 10.277567 21.040889 39.455591 68.020018 113.602678
2025-06-08 1.256310 3.840489 9.276950 20.105258 39.373444 70.175842 120.544775
2025-06-15 1.073770 3.589000 9.179284 20.751795 41.946399 76.574768 134.197944
2025-06-22 0.817648 3.066585 8.423431 20.051975 42.104900 79.085295 141.906396
2025-06-29 0.712950 2.914734 8.431756 20.821803 44.902511 86.020204 156.870335
2025-07-06 0.473661 2.283970 7.267934 19.170918 43.335705 85.925461 161.145296
2025-07-13 0.381993 2.082165 7.090281 19.575358 45.688329 92.704436 177.117967
2025-07-20 0.314868 1.931849 7.006753 20.166078 48.439262 100.323503 194.842381
2025-07-27 0.264867 1.820417 7.000164 20.923190 51.570566 108.775007 214.336674
2025-08-03 0.215444 1.678975 6.872605 21.372210 54.102210 116.271082 232.513889
2025-08-10 0.162755 1.478978 6.514927 21.203881 55.324867 121.424369 246.848917
2025-08-17 0.113217 1.243191 5.968680 20.465168 55.248483 124.130931 256.986953
2025-08-24 0.082900 1.087311 5.636849 20.223139 56.210935 128.824562 270.817385
2025-08-31 0.053985 0.894016 5.097646 19.317034 55.586203 130.401040 279.073494
2025-09-07 0.044292 0.846363 5.101356 19.943141 58.516948 139.073053 300.591616
2025-09-14 0.028842 0.708531 4.684111 19.265441 58.326912 141.525243 310.726390